CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-04T04:13:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-04T04:13ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33751/-1
CME Note: PRELIMINARY: This CME is faintly visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and to the south in STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source appears to be two eruptions in close proximity to each other in the SW quadrant of the Earth-facing disk. A dimming region possibly associated with a faint filament eruption is visible in SDO/AIA 193 starting around 2024-10-04T02:00Z in the SW near ARs 13842, 13839, and 13844 followed by moving/opening field lines visible in SDO/AIA 171 starting around 2024-10-04T03:00Z in the SW below ARs 13844, 13843, and 13836. The moving/opening field lines are largely visible heading to the west while the dimming appears to have some southern directionality. A third separate eruption from AR 13842 (an M4.0 flare) is likely associated with an overlapping CME feature. Both SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs have data gaps during this event. May potentially have arrived as a magnetic field enhancement near 2024-10-07T22:12Z embedded in ongoing arrival signature which started 2024-10-06; further analysis of this event is currently ongoing.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-07T22:12Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.33
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-07T03:42Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 55.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.4 - 5.6
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 44.62 hour(s)
Difference: 18.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2024-10-06T01:35Z
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